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The US is in a nuclear race to keep up with China and Russia… it’s losing

The rapid expansion of weapons by Moscow and Beijing in recent years means being left behind is a genuine concern for America

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Within a decade, it is expected that China will have as many nuclear warheads deployed as the United States.
Pentagon estimates suggest that Beijing will have 1,500 operable nuclear weapons by 2035.
It will mean for the first time since the end of the Cold War, Washington will have to contend with more than just a single adversary considered a nuclear superpower.
And to make matters worse, both the Russians and Chinese have only recently signed a treaty of “friendship without limits”, cementing their opposition to the Western world order.
Both Moscow and Beijing pose their own challenges to the United States.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly flirted with the prospect of a nuclear war since invading Ukraine, a Western ally, in February 2022.
The Russian despot most recently signed into law lower thresholds for the use of nuclear weapons, in response to increased Western support to Ukraine.
Whereas China has eyes on the seizure of Taiwan, another US ally and vital for the global supply of microchips.
Experts widely believe Xi Jinping has ambitions to make the land grab beyond 2028, after the Chinese president won another term as the country’s leader.
A military attempt to capture Taiwan by China’s People’s Liberation Army could well put them in direct contact with the US armed forces.
This is why there is a growing chorus of voices inside and outside of government in Washington that argue for America’s nuclear deterrent to be modernised at an accelerated rate.
Normal practice would see an incoming administration, in this case Donald Trump, carry out a review of nuclear policy and strategy.
These are timely and costly, and often are not finished by the time the president’s term comes to a close.
Russia, if its leaders are to be believed, has already completed its own modernisation programme of its nuclear weapons programme.
Some of this is also designed solely around destroying America’s possibility to retaliate in a first-strike scenario.
Worryingly, Chinese modernisation is happening even faster.
The rapid expansion by both countries of their nuclear weapons means being left behind is a genuine concern for the Americans.
Richard Johnson, who oversees nuclear policy at the Pentagon, recently warned: “We are now in a world where we’re facing multiple nuclear competitors, multiple states that are growing, diversifying and modernising their nuclear arsenals and also, unfortunately, prioritising the role that nuclear weapons play in their national security strategies.”
But how could the US nuclear deterrent be brought up to scratch for an era of competition from Moscow and Beijing?
One theory often spoken about is the scrappage of New Start, an arms reduction treaty signed with Russia, under which both sides are restricted to maintaining 1,550 deployed warheads each.
The pact is due to expire in May 2026, and Putin has already insisted he is not interested in renewing it.
As of 2023, the US had more than 3,000 unused warheads stockpiled, meaning it could significantly scale up the number of deployed weapons as a show of strength.
And then there is the issue of modernisation to make sure of the US nuclear triad – a three-pronged delivery system of air, sea and land-launched weapons.
Air Force General Anthony Cotton, America’s most senior officer in charge of strategic forces, argued recently it was crucial because both China and Russia needed to know how US forces would respond.
“We started talking about nuclear modernisation in 2010, but the world has changed since then,” he said.
“Our posture must align with today’s reality, where nuclear weapons are foundational to adversaries’ strategies,” he added.
That modernisation programme is currently a 30-year project, but if it doesn’t happen sooner, China will have taken over as the world’s foremost nuclear superpower.
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